Quantifying land use heterogeneity on drought conditions for mitigation strategies development in the Dongjiang River Basin, China

Spatially-invariant land use and cover changes (LUCC) are not suitable for managing non-stationary drought conditions. Therefore, developing a spatially varying framework resources is necessary. In this study, the Dongjiang River Basin in South China used to exemplify significance of spatial heterogeneity planning optimization mitigating risks. Using ERA5 that 5th major atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecast, we computed Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) quantify hydrologic during 1992 2018. Also, based on Climate Change Initiative product, The Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis was identify most dominant types same period. Then, Emerging Hot Spots characterize spatiotemporal evolution historical LUCC SRI. coefficients Temporally Regression models were reveal empirical relationships between Results indicated rainfed cropland with herbaceous cover, mosaic tress shrub, shrubland, grassland four having statistical correlations conditions over 27 years. Moreover, since 2003, DRB becoming drier, northern areas generally experienced severer than south. More importantly, proposed region-specific land-use strategies risk reductions. At basin scale, recommended 1) increase 2) reduce tree shrub. sub-basin extents shrub suggested but Region-specific planning, including locations, scales, strategies, will contribute handling current ‘one-size-fits-all’ LUCC. Planners integrate characteristics into future regional management.